Fay may Spell Trouble for Gulf Coast

There is little, if any historical data to compare what Tropical Storm Fay is doing to. Thus, logic dictates there is even less data to look at as to what it COULD do. This little storm has managed to cause even the most skilled forecasters to scratch their heads in utter bewilderment. If the scenario should happen to play out over the next few days this storm would make history.

 

Weather events do not happen by luck, chance or coincidence. There are meteorological reasons for why a storm does what it does. Storms do not have a mind of their own which enables them to deliberately do things to aggravate forecasters. Storms end up doing what the various aspects of weather governing it tell it to do.

 

One of the most distressing possible ways the whole Fay saga could end is if the storm makes history by hitting near Jacksonville, Florida as category 1 hurricane and moves west back across Florida and emerges in the Gulf of Mexico intact. If, and the probabilities of this taking place are very slim, this were to happen the end results from Fay could be worse than Katrina three years ago.

 

Winds blow counterclockwise around a hurricane. Katrina came up from the south and because of this, the storm surge ended up being over twenty feet along the Mississippi coast. The initial damage in New Orleans from Katrina was minimal because it sat on the western side of the hurricane moving north. The New Orleans catastrophe came about when Katrina moved ashore and the winds switched to the north and blew the waters from Lake Pontchartrain into the city which sits below sea level.

 

If Fay were to move west from Florida towards New Orleans, the potential disaster would dwarf Katrina. Why? Because the westward movement of the storm would produce a prolonged period of NORTH winds ahead of the approaching storm. Instead of a storm surge preceding the hurricane like Katrina, the storm surge would follow the storm and be minimal. The greater danger would be the north winds over a prolonged time blowing the waters of Lake Pontchartrain into the city of New Orleans.

 

Due to the lay of the land and where the city of New Orleans sits, there is actually very little danger of a storm surge inundating the city. The potential problems have always laid in the scenario of a storm moving in from the southeast or east and generating a prolonged period of hurricane force winds over Lake Pontchartrain. Unless a person has been to the area it is difficult to picture how a lake could cause more problems than an ocean; but such is the case in New Orleans.

 

No one knows at this time what Fay will end up doing. It may come ashore again and more or less just fizzle out. It may come ashore and move to the northwest into Georgia and help break the longstanding drought there. It may emerge on the west side of Florida, move south and make a loop following the same path it just took. It may emerge into the warm waters of the Gulf, become a hurricane and move west directly toward New Orleans.

 

This storm has a history of NOT doing what the computer models think it should do. Because of this, it would be highly advantageous for anyone from the panhandle of Florida to New Orleans to be acutely aware of the movements of Fay over the next few days. Some models and some hurricane experts think the greatest danger is that Fay emerges off the west coast of Florida, immediately intensifies and follows Ivan's 1994 path which would put Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida at high risk.

 

Needless to say, the next three to seven days could end up being at the very least, interesting and at the worst, a disaster which would equal or exceed Katrina in some respects. And as if this were not enough to be concerned about, out in the Atlantic is the next storm which is slowly taking shape and could be buffeting some portion of the United States coastline by this time next week.

 

I would highly recommend anyone with interests on the Gulf Coast to monitor what Fay is doing very closely along with the next storm. The remainder of this hurricane season could end up being very active and one that presents forecasters with storms such as Fay which are nearly impossible to forecast. As in any hurricane season, the next 2 months are the most dangerous and especially so this year. Vigilance is the key word for the day and for the days to come.

Edouard: Prepare for the Worst and Pray for the Best

The developing situation along the Gulf coast bears witness to the fact that anyone living near the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico must stay ever vigilant. Only last year we had the situation with Hurricane Humberto developing quickly into a small but potent storm and now we have Edouard seemingly coming out of nowhere to pose problems for not only the coastal areas but offshore oil drilling platforms.

 

No one expects Edouard to become much more than a strong tropical storm, but some computer models are expecting it to strengthen to a hurricane before coming ashore near Houston. The problem with this whole scenario is that only three days ago, no one expected there to even be a tropical depression, let alone a storm.

 

The question that begs to be answered is how with all the computers and all the forecasting tools available to meteorologists does a storm form so close to the shore of the United States without warning? The answer is that there are private companies which were speaking of the possibility of a storm days ago. It was only the official government agency which did not.

 

The formation of these storms so close to land and their rapid intensification is new phenomena. For too long, the standard forecasting tools did not take into account the ability of storms to form and ramp up as quickly as they are now doing. Until the "official" tools catch up with the reality of what is happening, these "surprise" storms will keep popping up.

 

What if sometime down the road one of these storms springs to life within 24 hours and stalls. While hovering offshore it strengthens and keeps growing. What if one of these little storms suddenly turns into a storm like Wilma in 2005 or Charley in 2004 and explodes as it reaches shore. What if one of these storms does this right over Houston or New Orleans?

 

If the people have ho advance warning than there is no safe way to evacuate them from harm's way. If there is not at least 36 hours or more to prepare for a hurricane, the result will be confusion, pandemonium and a disaster almost as bad as the actual storm. Hurricane Dolly last month proved that a little storm can cause much damage if aimed at the right spot.

 

Even if Edouard only ends up bringing much needed rain to Texas and little else; it needs to be viewed as a wakeup call to those who live and have business interests along the Gulf Coast as well as the Atlantic coast. Preparation is the key to survival as well as minimizing the impact of such storms. Since the forecasting agencies are somewhat playing "catch up" with these kinds of storms, it places an even greater degree of urgency that preparations for storms are in place even when no storm is there.

 

Anyone living within 100 miles of the Gulf Coast or Atlantic Ocean should have a plan in place for what to do if a storm pays a surprise visit. If planning to stay put, then provisions MUST be in place well in advance of a storm, for once it is upon you, there is no way to find food, fuel, wood, etc. It is one thing to have days of advance warning of an impending storm; it is quite another to have 24 hours or less.

 

In our "get it done at the last minute" society, it is very hard to slow down long enough to think through what is needed and what to do if one of these surprise storms forms near you. But, it is no longer something that is optional, the time needs to be made to make plans and get provisions in place NOW. Even if not needed this year, then at least the worry is gone for next year's hurricane season.

 

Think about the worst case scenario even with Edouard; it suddenly strengthens today off the coast of Louisiana and stalls long enough to become a strong category 3 hurricane and then takes aim on Houston. It was absolute mayhem three years ago when Houston had days of advance warning for Rita. What if there were only hours of advance warning instead of days? That is why plans and provisions must be made in advance. I strongly urge anyone reading this to "prepare for the worst and keep praying for the best", not only with the current storm, but in all matters of natural disasters.